I love this time of year

I love this time of year.
Planning out a strategy, looking ahead to different state draws.
Between work and family, I can pull off one good out of state hunt each year.
For 2013, I’m putting in a series of long shot apps, with a multi layered back up plans.

I’m going to start with some “hail Mary” applications in Wyo., Az. And Utah.
With odds at 8% to 12% each, I‘m not holding my breath..
By the time New Mexico is due, I’ll know about Wyo, My plan is to apply for two of the best hunts in the state, with my third choice a good, but not great unite with odds at about 20%.
I should have a pile of “Un-successful” notices by late May, when I can apply for a decent deer hunt with enough points to put me near 50/50.
If all of this fails, I’ve identified a couple of hunts that usually have left over tags.

Who else is playing the multi state drawing game ?

So, you math wizards, if I put in 5 apps, with odds of;
8%
10%
12%
20%
And
50%
What are my odds of drawing one of those tags ?

The 8% overlaps the 10%, and the 10% & 12% overlap the 20%.
What are the odds I’ll draw two ?

I just put in for sheep and goat tags.

Then, when that dream is dead, I find an OTC hunt somewhere.

Ha! I thought I was bad! One state is tuff enough, but to do it for multiple states for multiple game makes me feel like I’m not even trying. I love draw season too; never know what you're gonna get. Good stuff

A-con said:

So, you math wizards, if I put in 5 apps, with odds of;
8%
10%
12%
20%
And
50%
What are my odds of drawing one of those tags ?

The 8% overlaps the 10%, and the 10% & 12% overlap the 20%.
What are the odds I’ll draw two ?

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I don't understand what you mean by the odds overlapping, but the way I look at the cummulative odds is overly simplistic, but essentially you just add them up.

There's a formula that does it better and it is really complex, but it comes out a little less than just adding them up.

So 8 + 10 + 12 + 20 + 50 = 100% chance you will draw one of those tags. With the complex math stuff maybe it goes down to 90% or something like that but pretty good chance at drawing one of those. Using the same theory that would be about a 50% chance of drawing two of those.

I'm way over simplifying it, but I'm in the ballpark. I'll see if I can find the post on the complex math.

My easy math was a little generous.

Your average odds are 20% for each draw. The cummulative chance that you will draw one of those tags is 67.2%. I think. Something around that.

I know the odds for rolling a specific number on a die is 66.6% if you get 6 rolls at it and the odds of that is 16.67 for each separate roll. I'm probably messing something up by averaging you odds but that's the only way I could figure out to calculate it.

I'm going to apply for apply for Wyoming antelope! What are the odds of that! BOOM! Just blew my mind!

(note, I wrote this before I read your post #5)


100% sound good to me, but I know that's not how it works.

By "overlapping", I mean that I must apply for the second tag before I get the results on the first, and apply for the forth tag before I get the results on the second and third. Therefor, it's possible that i will draw two or more tags.
I was just throwing the math question out for fun. I've been doing this for 14 years, and based on experience I believe my odds of drawing one tag are about 65%, and maybe 3% or 4% of drawing two tags.

Arizona points only for deer, elk, sheep, and antelope.
Wyoming Elk and depending on how that goes will vary on what I do the rest of the draw season. (either enter draw or collect points for deer and antelope)
Colorado points only deer and elk.
Utah points only deer, elk, sheep, and antelope.
Have been able to hunt every year in one of the states while still acquiring points. My plan is to draw some better units in the next couple of years but have been very happy with the success and quality of game I have been having in the not so primo units. The only problem is that hunting out west then coming back east to hunt is very disappointing. Western hunting is an addiction that I hope to never find a cure for.

Muleyfanatic said:

. The only problem is that hunting out west then coming back east to hunt is very disappointing. Western hunting is an addiction that I hope to never find a cure for.

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Man, thats no lie.

I do enjoy the application gig. If you saw the masses of maps, data, research, etc. spread out on the floor of the Randy room, you would shake your head.

It goes without saying that in order to do this TV show, I spend hours and hours each winter, planning and trying to figure our how we have enough tags to film the required episodes.

All of us who live in OTC states are lucky. I know I have a deer and an elk hunt every year in my home state of Montana. That makes it a lot easier to swing for the fences in other states.

Right now, the white board has eight hunts on it, that unless odds change significantly from last year, we should draw in each of those hunts.

On the board for sure:

• Montana elk
• Montana deer
• Colorado OTC elk
• AK black bear (already drew the tag)
• AZ Coues deer on the leftover October tags

Guaranteed, so long as the odds are similar to last year.

• Wyoming elk (limited entry first choice, general second choice)
• Wyoming antelope with Uncle Larry
• Arizona elk with my son

So, with eight hunts already on the board, I am going for some longshots on the remaining apps. Long shots below. None of these will have better than 1 to 20 odds. My theory has been to always have a few hunts locked down, then shoot for the stars on the rest of them. That is how I have lucked out and drawn some amazing tags. Just have to approach it with the mindset that you will mostly likely not draw any of those tags and if you do draw one of these long shots, you were a lucky guy.

• NV sheep, archery antelope, deer.
• ID deer, elk, antelope, and bear. Going for the hardest to draw on all species.
• CO desert sheep, deer, elk.
• NM archery elk, deer, antelope, and desert sheep.
• UT antelope (I have max points with a couple other guys, so I have really good chance at one of the bonus tags), elk, deer, moose, bison, goat, sheep.
• AZ antelope, desert sheep, and points for deer.
• VT moose
• NH moose
• ND deer
• SD (depends on what we have for tags by the time SD apps are due).

My son has been applying for tags since he was old enough in every western state. He has a ton of points for every species in every state. My long-term goal after he graduated college was for him and I to burn all those points and have one or two seasons hunting the west for months on end. Probably not going to happen. Our time hunting together is restricted by the realities of life - his job back east, the limits on his vacation time for him, and him having priority to his relationship with a very nice girl. So, I guess we will burn points a year at a time, trying to join together for one or two good hunts a year. This year being Arizona elk and maybe NV deer.

In the event I don't draw any of these long shots, I will use general ID deer as one of my fall back hunts and KS deer (app not due until late May) as the other. Always have MT bear, Sitka Blacktails, and a few other general tags in states that allow non-residents to by tags over the counter.

Good luck to all of you.

For sure I'm hunting axis in Hawaii in May/June.
Then I should draw a NV archery antelope.
I already applied for archery elk and muzzleloader antelope in AZ.
I will apply for 13B deer in AZ and I'm at the top of the point pool.
I'll apply for most species in NM but all will be long odds.

I'm not a fan. So many places to go and so little time. I'm also second guessing some area choices and wishing I had more money. It will be interesting to see what happens to this year's income when the first check rolls in this week showing what this year's payroll tax increase will take thanks to, well, who cares right?

7 states to apply for. Here's my list. Jk. I only want one good tag per year whether its mine or my friends I don't care.

How do some of you even get the time off to go on all these hunts, must have a ton of vacation time built up, then the money for tags/points for all these is crazy. One thing I'm curious about, those of you who put in as NR for sheep, goat, moose hunts. Is there even a realistic chance(realistic being 20%+) of drawing a tag in less than 10 years in the lower 48? Pretty much every state I saw for a NR the odds were less than 10% even w/a decent amount of points built up. Not counting the handful of units in MT that were 100% on sheep.

bib078: The odds indeed seem to be overwhelming, but allow me to point out that I drew an Arizona desert bighorn sheep permit AND a Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep permit in 1976 in my FIRST year of applying--both as a non-resident. After the mandatory five-year wait, it took me 15 years to draw the second Wyoming bighorn permit in 1996. That was the year I also drew a Missouri River Breaks elk permit and a Nevada mule deer permit. Almost lost my job over it with a pissant boss. I also drew a desert sheep permit in Nevada in 2012 after 18 years of applying. So, to answer your question, no, it is not practical to plan on drawing within ten years. You have to go for the long haul and be persistent. Yes, it costs a lot of money over the years to apply. By the way, I have applied in Montana for a bighorn permit, two years as a non-resident, 26 years as a resident, and have never drawn. But I keep applying. Persistence and blind ass luck...those are the keys, in my opinion.

Big Fin said:

• CO desert sheep
  

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If you luck into this one, I insist you take me. I can see the unit from my living room.

Oak, love that photo. The depth of field really makes it stand out.

A-con said:

Oak, love that photo. The depth of field really makes it stand out.

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I will confess, it came from a friend's camera.

I sat down with the NM proclamation when it came out and made a list of tags it totaled out to 600$ then i look at my income and the fact that I wanted to stay married and now my short list is well short:
2B for Mule Deer (dream on) backup is archery in 27 for Couse Deer
one of the 16s for elk
Ibex muzzy hunt (dream on)
pronghorn
OTC Black Bear
Javelina (assuming i don't tag out this season)

Within 5 years I want to start banking points for serious hunts in other states, goats and sheep especially.

blb078 said:

How do some of you even get the time off to go on all these hunts, must have a ton of vacation time built up

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I worry more about staying married, than keeping a job. Luckily, I've spent weeks away since we first met, and she's used to it. She doesn't like it, especially since I hunt solo for the most part, but she tolerates it(most of the time).

I'm usually lucky with work, I work 84 hours a week from February until May. As long as nothing stupid happens, that allows me to take off September through November.

Some years it back fires. This year I went back in December, work dried up a couple weeks later. Since I took time off, I was the first to get laid off. Of course, my wife's car blew up New Years day, and we ended up buying a new car. So, my hunting budget is already under attack this year.

Oak said:

If you luck into this one, I insist you take me. I can see the unit from my living room.

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You would be the first guy who gets the call.